The October 30, 2016, seismic sequence in Central Italy produced an abrupt increase in river discharge, which lasted for several months. The river is fed by fractured large carbonate aquifers interconnected by Jurassic and Quaternary normal faults in an area characterized by high seismicity.
The highest part of the Nera River basin (Central Italy) hosts significant water resources for drinking, hydroelectric, and aquaculture purposes. This article advances the study of past, present and future DSG changes in the central Mediterranean region. Beyond the CSA, validation obtained across terrains of varying complexity in both the northern and southern sectors of the peninsula indicate that the model holds potential for applications in a broad range of geographical settings and climatic situations of Italy. The model was validated on the basis of the identification of contemporary snow cover patterns and historical evidence of summer snow cover in high massifs. Taking into account spatial scale-dependence, a parsimonious model was developed by incorporating elevation, winter and spring temperatures, a large-scale circulation index (the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability, AMV) and a snow-severity index, with in situ DSG data, based on a core snow cover dataset covering 97 years (88% coverage in the 1907–2018 period and the rest, discontinuously from 1683 to 1895, from historical data of the Benevento station).
The adopted modelling approach reveals that DSG estimates in most settings in Italy can be driven by climate factors occurring in the CSA. Here, we provide observational and modelling evidence that it is possible to produce reliable time-series of DSG for Italy based on instrumental measurements, and historical documentary data derived from various sources, from a limited set of stations and areas in the central-southern Apennines (CSA) of Italy. However, measurements of days with snow cover on the ground (DSG) are limited, especially in complex terrains, and existing measurements are fragmentary and cover only relatively short time periods. Snow cover duration is a crucial climate change indicator.
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